Assuming 2T Cait (-15), Ravus Manor worst battle and ambush, and Quarrycrest ambush (-5) you are short 13JP for Leghold. You can still win without it, but you're limited to 6T scripts as 9T require Leghold, and you lose some options for 6T.
Will note backups. Generally, if you 1T kill Cait you don't have to worry.

Chapter 1

Buy Iron Sword + War Spear
Challenge two dudes: Spear, Spearx2
Sword on 2 break guy -> Level Slash -> Level Slash x4
Pick Light S.
Get Fire S if no Wind S drop earlier.
Heal to full before Gaston

Gaston

1. Level Slash
2. Fire/Wind Soulstone
3. Light Soulstone
4. Abide
5. 4xSpear
6. 3xSpear
7. Heal
8. Spear
9. Abide
10. 4xSpear
11. Spear

Go to Scholar Shrine, kill Cait on the way.

Pick Light L, $20000.
TP Cobbleston.

Tag Bolderfall. Get Hunter Shrine + Olive L.
Enter Victor's Hollow, start Ch.2, TP Rippletide when back on 1st screen.

Tressa Ch.1

Light L

Head towards Merchant Shrine. Pick Light S if you want to kill Ravus Manor battle, $1200. Get Merchant Shrine.

TP Cobblestone, go to Runeblade. Pick Light M, Light L, $50000.

TP Cobbleston. Go to Wellspring, pick Fire L.
TP Bolderfall.

Therion Ch.1

Kill Ravus Manor battle w/ Light S + Level Slash x2, or run if no Light S.

Heathecote: Fire L + Light M

Go to Shop, buy 1 Herb of Valor.
Head towards Riverford.

If you get a battle on Bolderfall screen, you can M Stone to kill it.
You then run from Cervantes, get the Silver-filled Pouch in Riverford, and sell it in Marsalim (closest shop).
End result is -2k, -10s compared to just getting the flee (roughly same as 2nd turn flee). If you 1T Cait killed, you guarantee Leghold JP even with Ravus Manor battle skip and Quarrycrest ambush.

Pick Pom S, need to kill Quarrycrest battle, use Light L.
Challenge Cervantes and kill w/ M Stone.

Need 207EXP to level off 1st Challenge

Tag Riverford. Go to towards Refuge Ruins and pick Wind L along the way.
Pick Forbidden Blade, Enchanted Rod, Force Shield.

TP Wellspring. Pick Thunder L, $20000. Go to Marsalim Catacombs.
Pick Rev Jam, Master Spear, Viper Dagger (in that order) and exit.

Go to Marsalim. Buy 2 Pom L.
Pick Tempest Amulet, buy 3 L Stones, pick 3 chests.

TP Victor's Hollow, continue Olberic Ch.2.

Olberic Ch.2

Right Challenge

1. Sword
2. Sword
3. Abide
4. Sword x2
5. Cross Strike x4

Left Challenge

1. Abide
2. Thousand Spears
3. Thousand Spears x4 / Cross Strike x4 if broken.

Buy 2 Shadow M and Bottle of Blinding Dust.

Victorino - 12718 - Sword, Dagger, Wind, Dark

Turn 1

• Olberic: Abide
• Tressa: Defend
• Therion: HHM x2

Turn 2

• Tressa: HHM x3
• Olberic: Thunder L
• Therion: Armor Corrosive

Turn 3

• Olberic: Cross Strike x4
• Therion: Attack x2

Joshua - 18184 - Axe, Staff, Fire, Light - Ice M 30% x2

You can make the fight safer by paying attention to turn order.

Turn 1

• Olberic: Defend x2 / Defend / Pom S T2 Merchant 2
• Merchant 1: HHM / Pom M Olberic
• Merchant 2: Defend / Pom S T2 Merchant 2

Turn 2

• Merchant 1: HHB x3
• Olberic: Staff x3 [L]
• Merchant 2: HHV x3/4 / Defend
• HHV early safer because you kill the adds. HHVx3 requires another M Stone

Turn 3

• HHV x4 / M Stone

Watch for M Stone drop, this affects stones bought in Riverford
You really want 1, 51% chance of at least 1.

Archibold - 20182 - Dagger, Bow, Ice, Dark

Throw Shadow L before Fire L
If you don't have a Merchant before Archibold, you can YOLO Bottle of Blinding Dust and pray.
With pattern of Merchant Olberic Add Archibold Merchant, you can try Olberic Defend x2. Best way to fill range is to replace Shadow M with a L Stone. If Tressa is before Archibold T3, you can have her Pom S Olberic T2 but fight is a range.

Turn 1

• Merchant 1: HHM
• Others: Shadow L + Fire L

Turn 2

• Olberic: Blizzard
• Tressa: Defend
• Therion: Steal SP

Turn 3

• Olberic: Abide
• Tressa: Bow x2
• Therion: Armor Corrosive

Turn 4

• Olberic: Cross Strike x4
• Tressa: Shadow M
• Therion: Steal SP x4

Gustav - 39549 - Spear, Axe, Bow, Fire, Dark

3T Strat (requires Therion 1st)
T1: HHVx2, Thousand Spears, Leghold
T2: Thousand Spears, Rain of Arrows, Armor Corrosive
T3: Tressa HHVx4, Steal SPx2, X Strike x4

If willing to YOLO, can skip Leghold T1 and tank Gustav's attacks.
He always goes Level Slash > Attack T2, and X Strike > Level Slash T3
You just need to pray Level Slash doesn't crit Tressa

Listing 4T fight for bad turn orders.

Turn 1 (Not sure if we can skip Leghold here)

If Tressa before Therion, can have them swap but fight might become 5T

• Olberic: Defend
• Therion: HHV x2
• Tressa: Leghold

Turn 2

• Olberic: Defend x2
• Tressa: RoA
• Therion: HHM

Turn 3

• Olberic: Thousand Spears
• Tressa: RoA
• Therion: Corrosive

Turn 4

• Olberic: Cross Strike x3
• Tressa: HHV x4
• Therion: Steal SP x3

TP Riverford. Buy M Stones + Pom M as needed.

Pom M if we used 1 in Ch.2.
We need 2M stones here, ideally 3 if no Ice M drop

Go to Warbringer. Pick $30000.

TP Victor's Hollow, finish chapter. TP Wellspring.

Olberic Ch.3

JP Backups
15JP: Girl in front of town: TS, XS x3 (same as other challenge here)

If you miss a 1T kill on Lizards (-12), don't backtrack, can fight in Riverford.

Talk to first 2 NPCs, then Challenge 2nd NPC.
Challenge: Thousand Spears, Cross Strike x3 (Spear x3 if 4 his TS)

Lizards #1

L + M

Lizards #2

Ice L + M OR L + Ice M + Blizzard x2 OR L + M + Blizzard x2 if no Hold Strong OR L + 2M

Reason you want an Ice M or an extra M is you can't kill with Blizzard if Hold Strong.
And you need T1 kill for JP bonus.

Lizardman Chieftan - 51868 - Sword, Dagger, Axe, Lightning, Light

There's room to get bonuses in this fight / save Pom L, but probably not worth bothering with
Assuming EVERYTHING rolls min damage, he lives with 353

T1

• Olberic: Pom L Therion
• Tressa: Leghold
• Therion: Armor Corrosive x2

T2

• Olberic: Lightning Blast
• Tressa: Thunderbird
• Therion: HHV x4

T3

• Olberic: Cross Strike x4
• Tressa: HHV x4
• Therion: Steal SP x2

DO THIS MENU

Erhardt - 14819 - Sword, Axe, Ice, Dark

Replace a Sword with HHM if you buff his attack

1. Attack
2. Attack
3. Attack
4. Attack x3
5. HHVx3

TP Riverford.

Olberic Ch.4

JP Backups
15JP: 2nd screen 1st guy guarding house: TS, XS x2 (same as wellspring)
10/11JP: Cervantes right guy in front of Tavern: XS x2. Can miss the crit, which means you only get 10JP with a T2 kill. Can also just throw a M Stone if you have a extra.

If you didn't buy 1 earlier, pick Herb of Valor bottom left of second screen.
Purchase Ice L if needed.

Red Hat - 24320 - Sword, Axe, Wind - Thunder M 80%

Replace a Attack with HHM if you buff his attack

2 Stone fight:
1. Wind L
2. Attack
3. Attack
4. HHVx4
5. L Stone

1 Stone fight:
1. Abide
2. Cross Strike x3
3. Cross Strike
4. Grape M
5. Attack
6. HHV x4
7. L Stone

If he didn't drop a Thunder M, consider buying it from the old lady at the start of screen 2.
It's very helpful for 9T Werner.

Pick Silver-filled Pouch in Lord's Manse before warping back to Riverford.

Go to shop, sell until $119000

Werner - 101396 - Dagger, Axe, Lightning, Wind, Light

Vet counts

16 - M, M on weakness
15 - L, M on weakness. Just L is range
14 - L, M, M on weakness

There's 3 main opens to consider. The one in notes is the default.
2nd one is Olberic Defend x2, Thunder M, Rev Jam.
3rd one is Merchants Sidestep (if both requires Leghold)
You should choose the open based on T1 turn order.
I'm not going to cover all scenarios here, but here's a link to my spreadsheet scribbles that goes over them.

If you were paying attention, you might be wondering why we bought the Bottle of Blinding Dust
It's for this fight! You can use it as a mega hailmary if you need the 6T to PB.
Essentially, just skip the Sidesteps and throw the bottle with 1 of your free turns. And pray.

6 Turn fight

Turn 1

• Olberic: Leghold
• Tressa: Lightning Blast / Olive
• Therion: Sidestep / Olive

Turn 2

• Olberic: Axe x3 [2R]
• Tressa: Sidestep
• Therion: Corrosive

Turn 3

• Merchants: HHV x4
• Olberic: Revitalizing Jam Olberic

Turn 4

• Olberic: Leghold
• Tressa: Pom L self
• Therion: Herb of Valor (fight becomes range) / Pom S self / Any M Stone

Turn 5

• Olberic: Attack x4
• Tressa: HHB x3
• Therion: Corrosive

Turn 6

• HHVxMAX + L Stone

9 Turn Fight

This fight isn't completely scripted, I'll be listing a rough script along with goals for each break.
To heal Olberic a Grape M or Grape Bunch works.

The big thing to look for is getting Therion 5BP before his action T4. T3 Therion last into T4 Therion 1st really sucks.
You can delay T3 Leghold to T4 to guarantee it. That + 2BP on Tressa more or less guarantees win.

Alternatively, you can look for Tressa 3BP T4 and Therion 2BP T4.
Then you do Bandits & AC T4, and have them Pom/Jam themselves T5

Turn 2

Break this turn, revive if needed, start setting up Sidesteps x2

• Olberic: Axe x3
• Tressa: Olive / Lightning Blast / Sidestep x2
• Therion: Olive / Sidestep x2

If somehow you don't have enough turns, you can delay Leghold till T4
You can do this on T6 as well

Turn 3

• Olberic: Leghold / Pom/Jam Therion
• Tressa: Sidestep x2 / Pom L Therion / Heal Olberic
• Therion: Sidestep x2 / Pom L Therion / Heal Olberic

Weak: Axe, Wind, Light

Turn 4

• Olberic: Pom/Jam Therion / Herb of Valor / Heal Self
• Tressa: Pom/Jam Therion / Herb of Valor / Heal Olberic / Pom Self if <2 BP
• Therion: Corrosive x3

Turn 5

• Olberic: Attack x3
• Merchant 1: HHB x4
• Merchant 2: Rev Jam / Pom L Merchant 1 (Ideally this is Therion)

Turn 6

• Olberic: Heal Self / Leghold
• Merchants: HHVx4

Steal SP can miss, and you might not have a Thunder M, which is why it's nice to have BP on Therion here

Weak: Dagger, Lightning, Light

Turn 7

• Olberic: Leghold / Pom Therion / Thunder M
• Tressa: Lightning Blast
• Therion: Steal SP (Can Dagger x4 if he has 5BP)

The amount of daggers you can do here is based off BP and whether or not you could throw an M Stone
If you threw a M, you can do one HHVx3

Turn 8

• Olberic: Pom Merchant / Thunder M / M Stone
• Tressa: Lightning Blast
• Therion: Dagger xAsManyAsYouCan / Steal SP

Turn 9

• HHVxMAX + L Stone

End after cutscene w/ Erhardt.